Four Left Standing: England Steamed In as the Outright Market Reshuffles
Available in USWith the quarter-finals done, the outright market has been torn up and reset around four teams. France are still the one everyone fears, but the big story of the week is England — steamed in hard after beating Norway — while Spain has quietly drifted. For the Irish punter weighing an outright before the semis, the order behind the favourite is genuinely up for grabs. Here is the state of the market, the euro-book prices, and where the value sits.
The state of the outright market
Only four selections are left standing, and this is how they line up heading into the semis (as of 13 July 2026, converted to fractional):
- France — around 11/8. The unanimous favourite. Six wins from six, 16 goals scored and two conceded, clean sheets in all three knockout ties.
- England — around 31/10-49/10. The big mover: steamed in sharply after the Norway win, second favourite on some books.
- Spain — around 10/3-41/10. Drifted this week as England’s price shortened, despite a 36-match unbeaten run.
- Argentina — around 4/1-21/5. Steady after grinding past 10-man Switzerland.
Why the market moved
The shifts all trace to the weekend’s quarter-finals. England were the biggest mover: beating Norway to reach the last four steamed their price in from the 5/1-6/1 range down towards 31/10, enough to make them second favourite ahead of Spain on at least one major book. Argentina firmed marginally after seeing off Switzerland. Spain drifted — not for anything they did wrong, but simply squeezed out as the money piled onto England. France barely moved, holding firm as the clear market leader.
There is one thing worth flagging for the careful punter: the books do not agree on the order behind France. One ranks Spain ahead of Argentina ahead of England; another has England shortest of the three. That disagreement is exactly where value tends to hide.
The value read
France at 11/8 are the safe call and probably the right one on merit — but there is almost no value left in the favourite. The interest is in the disagreement behind them.
The Irish angle
With Ireland long out, the outright market is a pure neutral’s puzzle for the Irish punter — no heart-over-head trap, just four elite sides and a market that has moved on emotion as much as merit. That England steam is the sort of home-nation momentum that can shorten a price past its true value, which is often where the contrarian euro lands. Spinstar.bet and WinRolla are among the euro-facing books pricing the outright, with odds in euro. For the ties themselves see our semi-finals preview, and the evergreen winner odds page and betting guide for how outright and each-way markets settle.
Odds shown are converted to fractional format for Irish bookmakers and were accurate as of 13 July 2026; always check the live price before betting. 18+, gamble responsibly. Please play within your limits — support is available at GambleAware.ie.
