The Final Four: France v Spain, England v Argentina, and the Road to New York
Available in USWe are down to the last four, and it is a heavyweight card. France, Spain, England and Argentina — reported as the first time the tournament’s four highest-ranked nations have all reached a World Cup semi-final — go to war across two nights for a place in the final at MetLife Stadium on Sunday 19 July. For the Irish punter there is no home side to cloud the judgement, just two brilliant ties and a market that has moved sharply since the weekend. Here is the guide to both, the euro-book prices, and where the value sits.
The two ties at a glance
Both semi-finals kick off at 8:00pm IST, made for a full Irish evening in front of the box.
- Semi-final 1 — France v Spain, Tuesday 14 July, AT&T Stadium, Arlington (Dallas). Billed as “a final before the final”: the two form sides of Europe, and only their second-ever World Cup meeting.
- Semi-final 2 — England v Argentina, Wednesday 15 July, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. The charged one — a first World Cup meeting since 2002, Kane against Messi, England’s 60-year wait against Argentina’s bid for back-to-back crowns.
France v Spain: the final before the final
France are the tournament’s most complete side — six straight wins, 16 goals scored and just two conceded, with clean sheets in all three knockout ties. Mbappé leads the Golden Boot race on eight and Michael Olise has a tournament-leading six assists. Their only wobble is fitness: Aurélien Tchouaméni is a major doubt with a thigh problem and Mbappé carried an ankle knock out of the Morocco win, though he is expected to start.
Spain arrive unbeaten in 36 matches — one short of Argentina’s all-time record of 37 — as reigning European champions, but they finally conceded their first goal of the tournament in a 2-1 quarter-final win over Belgium. The market makes France the favourite around 11/8 on the day with the draw and Spain both around 11/5 (as of 13 July 2026, converted to fractional). Deschamps, incidentally, is set to break Helmut Schön’s record for most World Cup matches managed.
England v Argentina: the one with history
This is the tie with the edge. England chase a first World Cup final since 1966, unbeaten and carrying Harry Kane (six goals) and the in-form Bellingham. Argentina, bidding to become only the third nation ever to win back-to-back World Cups, lean on Messi — eight goals, a share of the Golden Boot lead, and a hand in every knockout goal. The sub-plots write themselves: Kane has never scored against Argentina; Messi has never faced England competitively.
The book rates it the tighter tie. England are around 8/5 favourites on the day, the draw about 15/8, and Argentina roughly 21/10 (as of 13 July 2026, converted to fractional). England are without the suspended Jarell Quansah but otherwise close to full strength after the card-reset.
The outright picture and our read
France remain the clear tournament favourite around 11/8-6/4, and the market otherwise disagrees on the order behind them: England were steamed in to as short as 31/10 after beating Norway, with Spain drifting to around 10/3-4/1 and Argentina steady near 4/1. That England-Spain swap for second favouritism is the standout line move of the week.
The Irish viewing guide
Two 8:00pm IST kick-offs on consecutive nights is about as friendly as a World Cup gets for the Irish schedule — dinner done, the evening clear, no dawn alarm. With Ireland long out, this is neutral’s territory: pick the story you fancy and enjoy it. Boomerang Bet and BetiBet are among the euro-facing books pricing both ties, with odds in euro. For the individual ties see our France v Spain preview and England v Argentina preview; the winner odds page has the full outright market, and the betting guide explains to-reach-the-final markets.
Odds shown are converted to fractional format for Irish bookmakers and were accurate as of 13 July 2026; always check the live price before betting. 18+, gamble responsibly. Please play within your limits — support is available at GambleAware.ie.
