Four Left Standing: England Steamed In as the Outright Market Reshuffles

Updated July 2026
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With the quarter-finals done, the outright market has been torn up and reset around four teams. France are still the one everyone fears, but the big story of the week is England — steamed in hard after beating Norway — while Spain has quietly drifted. For the Irish punter weighing an outright before the semis, the order behind the favourite is genuinely up for grabs. Here is the state of the market, the euro-book prices, and where the value sits.

Four teams remain in the outright market as the World Cup reaches the semi-finals.

The state of the outright market

Only four selections are left standing, and this is how they line up heading into the semis (as of 13 July 2026, converted to fractional):

Why the market moved

The shifts all trace to the weekend’s quarter-finals. England were the biggest mover: beating Norway to reach the last four steamed their price in from the 5/1-6/1 range down towards 31/10, enough to make them second favourite ahead of Spain on at least one major book. Argentina firmed marginally after seeing off Switzerland. Spain drifted — not for anything they did wrong, but simply squeezed out as the money piled onto England. France barely moved, holding firm as the clear market leader.

There is one thing worth flagging for the careful punter: the books do not agree on the order behind France. One ranks Spain ahead of Argentina ahead of England; another has England shortest of the three. That disagreement is exactly where value tends to hide.

Example: A €10 outright on England at 31/10 returns €41.00 in total (€31.00 profit plus your €10 stake) if they go all the way.

The value read

France at 11/8 are the safe call and probably the right one on merit — but there is almost no value left in the favourite. The interest is in the disagreement behind them.

France (11/8) are the deserved favourite, but the value lies in the reshuffle behind them. Spain at 10/3-4/1 look overpriced for a side unbeaten in 36 that meets a France team managing Tchouaméni’s fitness — that is our outright pick. If you fancy the sentiment and the steam, England at 31/10 carry genuine momentum, but be aware you are taking a shortened price on a home-nation surge. Argentina at 4/1 are fair, no more.

The Irish angle

With Ireland long out, the outright market is a pure neutral’s puzzle for the Irish punter — no heart-over-head trap, just four elite sides and a market that has moved on emotion as much as merit. That England steam is the sort of home-nation momentum that can shorten a price past its true value, which is often where the contrarian euro lands. Spinstar.bet and WinRolla are among the euro-facing books pricing the outright, with odds in euro. For the ties themselves see our semi-finals preview, and the evergreen winner odds page and betting guide for how outright and each-way markets settle.

Who is favourite to win the World Cup 2026?
France are the outright favourite at around 11/8, ahead of England (about 31/10), Spain (10/3-4/1) and Argentina (about 4/1), as of 13 July 2026 and converted to fractional format.
Why have England’s World Cup odds shortened?
England were steamed in after beating Norway 2-1 to reach the semi-finals, shortening from the 5/1-6/1 range towards 31/10 and becoming second favourite on some books, while Spain drifted.

Odds shown are converted to fractional format for Irish bookmakers and were accurate as of 13 July 2026; always check the live price before betting. 18+, gamble responsibly. Please play within your limits — support is available at GambleAware.ie.