World Cup 2026 Group G — Belgium, Egypt, Iran*, New Zealand

No group at this World Cup carries more uncertainty off the pitch than Group G. Iran’s participation remains in doubt due to the ongoing military conflict involving the United States and Israel — Iran’s sports minister has publicly stated that the team may be unable to attend, while FIFA president Gianni Infantino insists that Iran should compete. A final decision is expected at the FIFA Congress on 30 April 2026. Until that is resolved, every prediction, odds market, and analysis for this group comes with an asterisk. What I can tell you is this: Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand are preparing as though the group will be played as drawn, and the betting markets have priced the group accordingly. For Irish punters, Group G is one to monitor rather than rush into — the value will reveal itself once the political dust settles.

Belgium — The Golden Generation’s Twilight

There was a window, roughly between 2016 and 2022, when Belgium were ranked first in the world and genuinely looked capable of winning a major tournament. That window is closing. The players who defined the Golden Generation — the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and Thibaut Courtois — are in the final phase of their international careers, and the transition to the next generation has been uneven. Belgium finished third at the 2018 World Cup and crashed out in the group stage in 2022, a trajectory that tells its own story about a squad in decline.

That said, Belgium remain a formidable side. The Belgian league continues to produce talented players who move to top European clubs, and the coaching staff have integrated younger faces into the squad alongside the remaining veterans. The tactical system has evolved from the free-flowing attacking football of the peak years to something more structured and pragmatic — a necessary adaptation given the changing profile of the squad. In a group containing Egypt, Iran (potentially), and New Zealand, Belgium are clear favourites regardless of their trajectory.

Belgium to top World Cup 2026 Group G sits at around 4/7, and that feels about right. They should have enough quality to win all three group matches, but their recent inconsistency means a slip-up against Egypt — the strongest of their group opponents — is not inconceivable. The Euro 2024 campaign, where Belgium were knocked out in the Round of 16 by France, showed a team still capable of competing at the highest level but lacking the ruthlessness that characterised their peak years. The question for punters is whether the remaining veterans can summon one more big-tournament performance or whether the decline has become terminal.

For punters, the more interesting angle is Belgium’s total group goals or clean sheets. Against New Zealand and potentially a weakened Iran, Belgium should score freely, and over 2.5 goals in those matches could offer better value than the outright group winner market. Belgium’s attacking talent — even in this transitional phase — is comfortably the best in the group.

Egypt — Salah’s Last Dance on the World Stage

Mohamed Salah is one of the greatest footballers Africa has ever produced, and the 2026 World Cup may be his final chance to perform on the biggest stage. Egypt’s qualification is as much about Salah’s legacy as it is about the team’s collective ambition. The Liverpool forward has carried Egyptian football on his shoulders for the better part of a decade, and the national team’s fortunes rise and fall with his form. When Salah is sharp, Egypt can compete with anyone. When he is absent or off-pace, they lack the creative spark to break down organised defences.

Beyond Salah, Egypt possess a squad built on defensive discipline and collective organisation. The Pharaohs play a low-block system that invites opponents onto them before hitting quickly on the counter — a style that suits their personnel and has proven effective in African qualifying. Their defensive record in the CAF qualifiers was strong, conceding fewer than a goal per match across the campaign, and their goalkeeper is among the best in African football. The midfield is industrious rather than creative, providing a screen for the defence and feeding Salah in advanced positions.

In Group G, Egypt are the most likely challengers to Belgium for the top two spots. At around 6/4 to qualify, they represent reasonable value — particularly if Iran’s participation is reduced or withdrawn, which would leave a three-team group where two qualify automatically. Even in a four-team format, Egypt’s defensive solidity and Salah’s match-winning ability give them a realistic path to the Round of 32. Their opening match against Belgium on Matchday 1 is the fixture that will reveal whether Egypt have the quality to push the group favourites or whether the gap between the two sides is as wide as the rankings suggest.

I rate Egypt as the second-strongest team in this group and expect them to finish behind Belgium but ahead of Iran and New Zealand. Their African Cup of Nations performances in recent years have been consistent — reaching the final in 2021 and the knockout rounds in subsequent editions — and that tournament experience translates directly to the World Cup group-stage format.

Iran — The Asterisk That Overshadows Everything

Iran’s presence in Group G remains unresolved as of April 2026. The military conflict between Iran and a US-Israeli coalition has created a situation unprecedented in World Cup history — a qualified team whose participation is genuinely uncertain due to active hostilities involving one of the tournament’s host nations. Iran’s sports minister has indicated that the national team may be unable to travel to the United States, while FIFA president Infantino has maintained that sport should remain separate from politics and that Iran must be allowed to compete.

The FIFA Congress on 30 April 2026 is expected to address the situation, and several outcomes are possible. Iran could compete as planned, potentially with matches relocated to Canadian or Mexican venues. Iran could withdraw voluntarily, reducing Group G to three teams with adjusted qualification rules. Or FIFA could take the unprecedented step of suspending Iran’s participation, which would trigger legal and diplomatic consequences that extend far beyond football.

For punters, the Iran situation creates genuine market uncertainty. Most bookmakers have priced Group G as though Iran will participate, but the odds will shift dramatically if they withdraw or are excluded. If you are considering bets on Group G, I would advise waiting until after the FIFA Congress for clarity. Placing bets on markets that could be voided or restructured is poor risk management, regardless of how attractive the current prices look.

Setting aside the geopolitical situation, Iran’s footballing credentials are solid. They have qualified for three consecutive World Cups and have a strong record in Asian competition. Their squad is domestically based, with the Iranian Pro League providing the vast majority of players, and their style is organised, defensive, and effective against opponents who underestimate them. At the 2018 World Cup, Iran drew with Portugal and were seconds away from beating Spain before a late equaliser. If Iran do compete in 2026, they are capable of taking points from any team in Group G except Belgium, and their presence would make the battle for second and third place significantly more competitive.

New Zealand — The All Whites Return

New Zealand’s qualification for the 2026 World Cup is only their third appearance at the tournament after 1982 and 2010. The All Whites are the perennial overachievers of Oceanian football, and their route to North America — through the OFC qualifying pathway — was comprehensive. In a region where the talent pool is shallow, New Zealand dominate through a combination of physical presence, tactical organisation, and a squad that draws from the A-League, lower English leagues, and MLS.

At the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, New Zealand drew all three of their group matches — against Slovakia, Italy, and Paraguay — becoming the only unbeaten team at that tournament despite finishing third in their group and going home. That result remains the proudest moment in New Zealand football history and demonstrates the All Whites’ ability to compete at the highest level through sheer determination and defensive rigour.

In Group G, New Zealand face an uphill battle. Belgium and Egypt both possess significantly more quality across every position, and even Iran (if they participate) have a deeper squad. At around 7/1 to qualify, New Zealand are the outsiders, and their best-case scenario is a repeat of the 2010 approach — draw as many matches as possible and hope the goal difference is kind enough to sneak through as a best third-placed team. Their match against Iran (or whoever replaces them) is the fixture where points are most realistically available, and that result could determine whether New Zealand’s World Cup lasts three games or four. For Irish punters, there is a natural affinity with the All Whites — a small footballing nation with limited resources, competing on heart and organisation rather than individual brilliance. Sound familiar?

Group G Match Schedule in Irish Time

Group G fixtures are scheduled between 14 and 23 June 2026. Venue allocations remain subject to the resolution of Iran’s participation status — if Iran compete, their matches may be moved to Canadian or Mexican stadiums rather than US venues. Irish viewers should expect late evening to late night kick-offs in IST for most fixtures.

All fixtures are subject to change pending the resolution of Iran’s participation. FIFA will confirm final scheduling details after the Congress on 30 April 2026. If Iran’s matches are relocated to non-US venues, the kick-off times in IST could shift, so check back for updates once the situation is clarified.

Group G Odds and Our Prediction

Belgium to win Group G at 4/7 is the safest play, though the price is short enough to discourage standalone bets. Egypt to qualify at 6/4 is the value pick — their defensive solidity and Salah’s presence make them a strong second favourite. If Iran withdraw, Egypt’s qualification odds will shorten significantly, potentially to odds-on, so there may be an opportunity to lock in value before the FIFA Congress resolution.

My predicted final standings (assuming Iran participate): Belgium first, Egypt second, Iran third, New Zealand fourth. If Iran withdraw, the group becomes a near-certainty for Belgium and Egypt to advance, with New Zealand picking up the third-place spot by default. The uncertainty around Iran’s status makes this the most difficult group to bet on with confidence, and I would recommend patience — wait for clarity before committing funds. The FIFA Congress on 30 April will be the pivotal moment. If you must bet now, Belgium to win the group is the only market where the outcome is relatively insulated from the Iran situation — Belgium should top this group regardless of who else is in it.

For the full overview of every group at the tournament, see the World Cup 2026 groups overview.