Belgium at the World Cup 2026 — Golden Generation’s Last Dance?
There was a time — around 2018 — when Belgium were ranked number one in the world and the question was not whether the golden generation would win a major trophy, but which one. Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku, Thibaut Courtois, Jan Vertonghen — a squad dripping with talent that reached the World Cup semi-final, the Euro quarter-final, and spent years atop the FIFA rankings. And won nothing. Not a single trophy. That golden generation is now mostly retired, fading, or clinging to the edges of the squad, and Belgium at the World Cup 2026 are a team in awkward transition — priced around 25/1 in most outright markets, which tells you everything about how far the perception has shifted. The question for Irish punters is whether this transitional Belgium side is genuinely as weak as the odds imply, or whether the market has overreacted to the departure of famous names and the shadows they left behind.
Belgium’s Qualification Path
Belgium qualified through UEFA Group D, finishing second behind Italy on 21 points from ten matches. The campaign was uneven — six wins, three draws, and a single defeat, the loss coming in Rome against Italy in a match where Belgium’s defensive frailties were exposed by the Azzurri’s clinical finishing. The goal difference of +12 was modest by Belgian standards, reflecting both a reduction in attacking output and a defensive record that was acceptable without being impressive. Thirteen goals conceded in ten matches placed Belgium in the middle tier of European qualifiers defensively — better than Germany, worse than almost everyone else in the top twelve.
The home record was the bright spot. Belgium won all five home qualifiers at the King Baudouin Stadium in Brussels, scoring eighteen goals and conceding just four. The crowd, still adjusting to a squad without Hazard and with De Bruyne in a diminished role, gradually warmed to the new generation of players, and the atmosphere at the final home qualifier — a 3-0 victory over Macedonia — suggested that the Belgian public has accepted the transition, even if it has not fully embraced it. Away from home, the record was one win, three draws, and one defeat — a significant drop-off that underlines the team’s vulnerability outside their comfort zone.
The most telling aspect of Belgium’s qualifying campaign was the reliance on set pieces. Eight of Belgium’s 25 qualifying goals came from dead-ball situations — corners, free kicks, and penalties — which accounted for 32% of their total output. For context, the European average during qualifying was approximately 22%. This suggests a team that struggles to create consistent open-play chances against organised defences, but one that compensates with aerial threat and rehearsed routines. In tournament football, set-piece efficiency is a genuine weapon — Portugal won Euro 2016 with exactly this approach — but it is not a foundation for winning a World Cup against elite opposition.
Key Players — Who Is Left From the Golden Generation?
Kevin De Bruyne will be 35 when the World Cup begins, and his involvement is the question that defines Belgium’s campaign. At Manchester City, his 2025-26 season has been managed carefully — fewer starts, a reduced training load, and a midfield role that positions him deeper than the advanced positions he occupied in his peak years. De Bruyne’s passing range remains world-class. His ability to pick out a runner from forty yards, to switch play with a single ball, and to deliver free kicks and corners with pinpoint accuracy has not diminished. What has diminished is his ability to sustain that level across ninety minutes, across three group matches in eight days, across potentially seven matches in thirty-nine days. The body that carried Belgium through two World Cups and three European Championships is no longer the reliable machine it once was.
If De Bruyne starts and stays fit, Belgium are a genuine top-eight side. His influence on the team is so profound that the gap between Belgium-with-De Bruyne and Belgium-without-De Bruyne is wider than for almost any other player-team combination at the tournament. The odds reflect this uncertainty — at 25/1, the bookmakers are pricing a version of Belgium that plays without De Bruyne for significant portions of the tournament. If he starts the first match and looks sharp, those odds will shorten rapidly.
Jérémy Doku has emerged as Belgium’s most exciting attacking talent since Hazard’s prime. At Manchester City, Doku’s pace, dribbling, and directness have made him one of the most feared wide attackers in the Premier League, and his development under Pep Guardiola — learning when to dribble, when to pass, when to hold position — has added a tactical intelligence that was missing from his earlier career. Doku’s qualifying campaign yielded four goals and five assists in nine appearances, numbers that placed him among Belgium’s most productive attacking contributors. His ability to beat defenders one-on-one and deliver crosses into dangerous areas gives Belgium a dimension that replaces, if not replicates, Hazard’s influence.
Romelu Lukaku remains Belgium’s record goalscorer and the default centre-forward, though his role has shifted from guaranteed starter to rotation option. At 33, Lukaku’s pace has declined but his hold-up play, aerial ability, and finishing in the box remain reliable. The debate within Belgian football is whether Lukaku should start ahead of Loïs Openda, whose energy, pressing, and versatility suit the current tactical approach more naturally. Openda’s club form — double-digit goals at RB Leipzig — makes the case for a generational shift at centre-forward, and the manager’s decision will shape Belgium’s attacking identity at the tournament.
In midfield, Amadou Onana has established himself as the anchor that Belgium’s transitional squad requires. His physical presence, tackling ability, and ball-carrying from deep provide a platform for the more creative players around him, and his development at Aston Villa has added a composure on the ball that was not always evident earlier in his career. Youri Tielemans continues to provide the passing quality and tactical awareness that Belgium’s midfield needs, though his defensive contribution remains a concern in matches where the midfield is outnumbered.
Defensively, the picture is less reassuring. The retirement of Vertonghen and Alderweireld removed over 250 international caps from the centre-back positions, and their replacements — while capable at club level — have not yet formed a partnership that inspires confidence at international level. The goalkeeping position remains strong, with Courtois at Real Madrid providing a world-class presence between the posts, but even Courtois cannot compensate for structural defensive weaknesses if the centre-backs are consistently beaten for pace or outmanoeuvred positionally.
Group G — Egypt, Iran*, New Zealand
Group G should be navigable for Belgium, though it comes with an asterisk — literally. Iran’s participation remains uncertain due to the ongoing military conflict, with a FIFA Congress decision expected by 30 April 2026. If Iran are replaced, the substitute nation would likely be a lower-ranked side, making the group easier. If Iran participate, they bring a squad with genuine quality — Mehdi Taremi’s goalscoring threat and Sardar Azmoun’s movement would test Belgium’s fragile defence — and the political backdrop would add a layer of tension to every fixture.
Egypt are the strongest confirmed opponent. Mohamed Salah, at 34, remains one of the most clinical attackers in world football, and his presence alone elevates Egypt from a mid-tier African side to a genuine group-stage threat. The Belgium-Egypt match is the fixture most likely to decide who tops the group, and I expect a competitive, open affair. Belgium’s defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed by Salah’s movement and finishing, and a draw or an Egyptian victory at around 7/2 is not outlandish.
New Zealand are the weakest team in the group by a considerable margin. The All Whites qualified through the OFC pathway and lack the squad depth to compete with European or African opposition over ninety minutes. Their squad relies heavily on a small number of European-based professionals, most notably Chris Wood, whose goalscoring record at Nottingham Forest provides the only genuine attacking threat. Belgium should win comfortably — 3-0 or 4-0 — and the match represents an opportunity to build confidence, rotate the squad, and give fringe players tournament minutes before the knockout rounds.
My predicted finishing order: Belgium first, Egypt second, Iran third (if participating), New Zealand fourth. The Belgium-Egypt match determines who tops the group, and I give Belgium the edge based on De Bruyne’s quality and Courtois’s presence. For betting, Belgium to top the group at around 4/7 is fair, and the value lies in Egypt to qualify at around 6/4 — a price that underestimates Salah’s impact and Egypt’s defensive organisation.
Fading Force or Still Dangerous?
The honest answer is: both. Belgium are a fading force in the sense that the golden generation has passed and the replacements, while talented, have not yet coalesced into a team with the same collective understanding and big-match temperament. The 2018 World Cup semi-final side knew each other’s games instinctively — Hazard drifting inside, De Bruyne finding the space, Lukaku occupying defenders. The current side is still learning those patterns, still building the chemistry that tournament football demands.
But Belgium are dangerous in the sense that individual quality can compensate for collective uncertainty in the group stage and early knockout rounds. De Bruyne’s passing, Doku’s dribbling, Courtois’s shot-stopping, and Lukaku’s or Openda’s finishing are enough to beat any group-stage opponent and most Round-of-32 opponents. The question is whether those individual contributions can be sustained across the five or six matches required to reach a semi-final, and whether the defensive structure can withstand the scrutiny of elite attacking teams in the latter rounds. Belgium’s record at recent major tournaments — quarter-final at Euro 2024, group-stage exit at the 2022 World Cup — suggests a team that has lost the ability to perform consistently across an entire tournament, even when individual performances are strong.
At 25/1, Belgium are priced as an outsider, and I think that is marginally too long. The true probability of Belgium winning the tournament is around 3-4%, which equates to fair odds of roughly 25/1 to 33/1. At the current price, you are getting approximately fair value — not a bargain, but not a waste either. The smarter bet is Belgium to reach the quarter-final at around 4/5, which requires winning the group and beating a Round-of-32 opponent — both achievable tasks for a squad with this level of individual talent.
My prediction: Belgium top Group G, beat their Round-of-32 opponent, and exit in the Round of 16 or quarter-final against a side that exposes their defensive weaknesses. The golden generation’s last dance ends not with a trophy but with a dignified exit — a performance that honours the players who gave Belgian football the best decade in its history, and that provides the foundation for the next generation to build upon. For Irish punters, Belgium are a team to appreciate rather than bet on heavily. Watch Doku, enjoy De Bruyne’s final World Cup, and save your serious money for the teams that Group G will eventually feed into the knockout bracket.