Messi Hijacks the Golden Boot: The Race Into the Last Eight

For most of this tournament the Golden Boot looked like Kylian Mbappé’s to lose. Not any more. Lionel Messi’s hat-trick on the opening day was only the start, and a goal against Egypt in the last 16 has pushed him clear at the top — and, crucially for the punter, clear at the top of the betting too. As the quarter-finals begin, the top-scorer market has a new favourite. Here is the state of the race, the euro-book prices, and where an Irish punter finds value.

The state of the race

The leaderboard reads clearly heading into the last eight:

• Lionel Messi (Argentina) — 8 goals. Sole leader, scored in every match, hat-trick on day one, and on the mark against Egypt in the last 16.
• Kylian Mbappé (France) — 7. His penalty against Paraguay made him the second player after Messi to hit 7+ goals at two different World Cups.
• Erling Haaland (Norway) — 7. A brace to sink Brazil kept him in the mix, and he has two more matches minimum if Norway upset England.
• Harry Kane (England) — 6. Steady as ever, and still alive with England into the quarters.

Why the market flipped

The betting has followed the goals. Messi is now the outright favourite at 6/5, having overtaken Mbappé, who sits at 7/5 (as of 8 July 2026, converted to fractional). It is a genuine shift: for much of the group stage Mbappé was the shorter price. The rest of the board stretches out — Haaland 15/2, Harry Kane 9/1, with longer shots including Ousmane Dembélé at 50/1 and Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal at 70/1.

The punter’s read

Here is the value question. Messi is the leader and the favourite, but 6/5 is short for a market where three or four players are within touching distance and any of them could catch fire in a single knockout tie. The two who carry most upside are the ones with a plausible run to the final and goals already in the tank.

The Irish angle

There is a neutral’s delight in this race for the Irish viewer: no home interest, so back the story you fancy. Messi chasing one last piece of individual history, Haaland dragging Norway somewhere they have never been, or Kane quietly compiling if England go deep. Spinstar.bet and WinRolla are among the euro-facing books pricing the top-scorer market, with prices in euro. For the fuller outright picture see our quarter-finals guide, the evergreen top-scorer odds page, and the betting guide for how each-way top-scorer bets are settled.

Odds shown are converted to fractional format for Irish bookmakers and were accurate as of 8 July 2026; always check the live price before betting. 18+, gamble responsibly. Please play within your limits — support is available at GambleAware.ie.