The Last 16 Takes Shape: England, France and Haaland’s Date with Brazil
Available in USWe’re down to the business end. The Round of 16 opens on Saturday 4 July, and with ten of the sixteen places already booked, the bracket is close to complete. For the Irish armchair supporter there’s plenty to get stuck into — England carrying the British-Irish flag, France looking ominous, and a romance of a tie that drags Erling Haaland back into some very old history. Here’s the shape of it, the prices for the euro books, and when to tune in.
Saturday’s openers: Canada-Morocco and Paraguay-France
The knockout second round kicks off with two ties on 4 July. Canada v Morocco (6:00pm IST, Houston) is the pick for drama — Morocco, unbeaten and coming off a penalty win over the Netherlands, are favourites at around 4/5, with the co-hosts Canada out at 15/4 and the draw 5/2. Canada have just won their first World Cup knockout tie in history, so confidence is high, even with Alphonso Davies’ fitness a lingering question.
Then comes the night’s formality: Paraguay v France (10:00pm IST, Philadelphia). France, who tore Sweden apart 3-0 in the last round, are a colossal 1/6 to win in 90 minutes, with Paraguay — who stunned Germany on penalties — a huge outsider at 7/1 or bigger. Kylian Mbappé and co. look the team to beat.
Sunday: England’s date with Mexico, and Haaland v Brazil
Sunday 5 July is the one circled in Irish sitting rooms. England v Mexico pits Harry Kane — now on 13 World Cup goals, one clear of Pelé — against the host nation in front of what will be a raucous crowd. England sit 7/1 to 17/2 on the outright (as of the morning of 2 July 2026, converted to fractional); get past Mexico and the quarters open up nicely.
The same day brings the tie of the round for the romantics: Brazil v Norway. Norway are at their first World Cup since 1998 — Haaland’s first major finals — having qualified with a perfect 8 wins from 8 and 37 goals. And the history is delicious: the last time these two met at a World Cup, in 1998, Norway beat Brazil 2-1 to reach the knockouts. Brazil are 10/1 for the trophy; the Norwegians will fear nobody.
The rest of the bracket
The remaining ties depend on Thursday and Friday’s results. The winners of Portugal-Croatia and Spain-Austria meet on 6 July, the same day USA face Belgium — a tie the USA will attack shorthanded, with Folarin Balogun suspended after his red card against Bosnia. The bottom half is completed on 7 July, pairing the winners of Argentina-Cabo Verde, Australia-Egypt, Switzerland-Algeria and Colombia-Ghana.
The Irish angle
No Irish side, but no shortage of reasons to watch: England to follow for the British-Irish crowd, France for the purists, and a Norway team led by Haaland walking into Brazilian folklore. With the outright market wide open behind France, the smart play for the Irish punter is to wait for the last-16 team-news before committing — Davies for Canada, Hakimi for Morocco and Salah’s fitness elsewhere could all move lines. Our winner-odds shake-up has the fuller market picture, and the teams hub tracks every side still standing.
Odds shown are converted to fractional format for Irish bookmakers and were accurate as of the timestamp noted; always check the live price before betting. 18+, gamble responsibly.
