World Cup 2026 Tips — Monday 22 June: Four Matches, One Value Pick

Updated July 2026
Licensed
Available in US
Fast payouts
18+ Only
Want more predictions?
Join our Telegram channel
Join

Monday is a four-match day, and for the Irish punter it is a tale of two halves of the clock. The opening two kick-offs are civilised; the back two are strictly for the night owls. Set your stall out early, because by the time Jordan and Algeria get going it’ll be past 4am here — check the full match schedule in Irish time if you’re planning the week.

Four fixtures, four very different reads — Monday rewards the punter who picks their spot. Photo for illustration.

All kick-offs below are converted to Irish Standard Time. A note on prices: the per-match odds in this week’s data came from a secondary source that couldn’t be verified against the trusted aggregators, so we’re not quoting match-result numbers here. Instead the reads below lean on the model win probabilities and form in the daily fact pack — and we only quote the dependable, dated outright market. Always confirm any live price with your bookmaker.

Argentina v Austria — 6:00pm IST

The pick of the early window, and the one with a storyline attached: Lionel Messi goes into this one level with Miroslav Klose on 16 World Cup goals after his hat-trick against Algeria. Argentina come in unbeaten and flying; Austria have lost Christoph Baumgartner for the tournament. The model has Argentina around a 65% chance to win, Austria roughly 14%.

Backing Argentina to win is more a statement of fact than a bet. The interest for punters sits in the goals and player markets — an Argentina side chasing a record for their talisman against a depleted Austrian midfield is a recipe for a comfortable, on-the-front-foot performance. If you want a number to hang a bet on, the holders are 8/1 to lift the trophy outright (FanDuel, as of 21 June 2026), a price that shortened after the Messi hat-trick.

Example: A €20 antepost bet on Argentina to win the World Cup at 8/1 returns €180 (€160 profit) if they go all the way.

France v Iraq — 10:00pm IST

France are about as one-sided as a World Cup fixture gets. A win nudges them through, and against an Iraqi side beaten 4–1 by Norway on the opening day, an Opta-style model in the fact pack gives France an 88.5% win probability — Iraq just 3%, the draw 8.5%.

There is no value backing France to win — the return wouldn’t cover the price of a pint. If you must get involved, the team-goals and handicap markets are the only sensible route here.

Norway v Senegal — 1:00am IST (Tuesday) — the value pick

Here is the one worth staying up for, and the kind of spot our value betting guide is built around. Erling Haaland has scored in 11 straight competitive games for Norway, who themselves have won 11 on the bounce. But Senegal are no France-style mismatch: they’re a top-25 side with real quality, and the model reflects a genuine contest — Norway 45%, the draw 25%, Senegal 30%.

Of Monday’s four games, Norway v Senegal is the only one the model rates as a true contest. A near-30% chance for Senegal is a far better outlook than the “Haaland steamroller” narrative suggests — that is where the value hides.

Senegal’s defence, marshalled by the fit-again Kalidou Koulibaly, kept them in their opener against France until late. If they sit in and frustrate a Norway side that can become one-dimensional when Haaland is starved of service, the Senegal win is the call of the night for me. For the more cautious, the draw — a one-in-four shot by the model — is the tidy hedge.

Jordan v Algeria — 4:00am IST (Tuesday)

Strictly for the insomniacs. Algeria, with Riyad Mahrez returning to the XI after a tactical rest against Argentina, are heavy favourites; Jordan are rank outsiders. Algeria need a result after their opening defeat, and the quality gap should tell. The fact pack carries no model split for this one, so treat it on the eye test — Algeria to win, with their goals to back it up, is the percentage read if you’re still awake.

The Monday verdict

If you back one thing on Monday, make it Senegal in the early hours — it’s the only game on the card the model can’t call, and that is precisely the situation where the value hides. The favourites (Argentina, France, Algeria) are all expected to get the result they should; spending your stake there is buying very little for a lot. For the groundwork on staking and markets, our World Cup 2026 betting guide is the place to start. Brands in the Irish pool such as Boomerang Bet, BetiBet and ZotaBet price these markets in euro, so it’s worth a quick shop around for the best Senegal number before kick-off.

What time does Norway v Senegal kick off in Ireland?
1:00am IST on Tuesday 23 June — an 8:00pm Eastern start converted to Irish time. It’s the latest-but-one game on Monday’s card.
Which is the value bet on Monday 22 June?
Senegal to beat Norway. The model gives them close to a 30% chance — the only one of the four games rated a genuine contest rather than a formality.
Why aren’t match-result odds quoted here?
This week’s per-match prices came from a secondary source that couldn’t be verified against the trusted aggregators, so we’ve left them out and used the model probabilities and the dated outright market instead. Always check the live price with your bookmaker.

Outright odds converted to fractional for Irish bookmakers and accurate to the timestamp noted. 18+, gamble responsibly.