Messi on the Brink: One Goal From History v Austria

For once, the timing is kind to us. Argentina v Austria kicks off at 6pm Irish time on Monday — a proper, sit-down, after-the-dinner-plates slot — and it just might be the evening Lionel Messi rewrites the record books. There’s a generation of Irish football supporters who have never known a World Cup without him. This could be the last one, and he is one goal from making it the most decorated of the lot.

One goal from Klose

Messi’s hat-trick in the 3–0 win over Algeria pulled him level with Miroslav Klose on 16 goals — the all-time record for a men’s World Cup. At 38, and in what is almost certainly his last World Cup, one more goal against Austria would make the record his alone. For a player who has, at various points, been accused of going missing at World Cups, the symmetry of breaking the scoring record at what is almost certainly his final tournament is hard to ignore.

The Argentina machine rolls on

This is not a one-man show, and that’s what makes Argentina so formidable. The defending champions arrive on an eight-match winning run, unbeaten in the tournament, and a win here all but secures their place in the Round of 32. Assistant coach Pablo Aimar was quick to warn against complacency:

"Austria is a very tough team, as we’re seeing with the vast majority of the teams participating in this World Cup"

Team news is largely positive for Lionel Scaloni: Nahuel Molina returns and is expected to start, Cristian Romero is available, and Messi himself is fit after the hamstring scare cleared up. Gonzalo Montiel is the lone doubt, with Molina set to take his place.

Austria won’t be rolling over

Austria are no makeweights, even if they go in as clear outsiders. They beat Jordan 3–1 in their opener and arrive on a strong run of their own. The blow is the loss of Christoph Baumgartner for the whole tournament, a real dent to their midfield creativity. Captain David Alaba, who knows Argentina’s quality intimately from his Real Madrid years, was clear-eyed about the task:

"We know what kind of opponent we’re up against, what kind of quality they have in their ranks, even besides Messi, but also what they’re capable of as a team"

What the odds say

The market has already reacted to the Algeria hat-trick. Argentina shortened from around 11.00 to 9.00 in the outright winner market — exactly 8/1 in fractional terms (FOX Sports/FanDuel, as of 21 June 2026). The match result itself is a formality on paper, so the betting interest sits elsewhere.

The genuine value, of course, isn’t on the match result — it’s on the man. Messi is 3/1 in the Golden Boot market (FanDuel, as of 20 June 2026), level with Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappé. If you believe he breaks the record on Monday and keeps Argentina ticking deep into the knockouts, that is a far more interesting price than the cramped favourite’s number on a result everyone expects.

The Irish angle

A 6pm kick-off is gold dust for the Irish viewer — early enough for the pub, early enough that you won’t be nodding off before the final whistle. RTÉ have the game live, and if you’re going to pick one evening this week to watch with neighbours rather than alone with the highlights, make it this one. Records like Klose’s don’t fall often, and “I was watching when Messi did it” is a far better line than “I caught it on the Player the next morning.” For the wider field chasing the holders, our tournament predictions lay out the contenders. If you fancy a small stake to go with the occasion, the Irish-facing books — BetiBet, Boomerang Bet and the rest of the euro-priced pool — all have Messi anytime-scorer and Golden Boot markets up.

Odds converted to fractional for Irish bookmakers and accurate to the timestamps noted; confirm the live price before betting. 18+, gamble responsibly.